The Future of Air Traffic and Aviation Industry Growth

aviation passenger numbers, source: innovation matters
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How much the aircraft market will grow tomorrow? What is going to happen in aviation industry? All answers and their effects will be discussed in this article. Air traffic is increasing year by year. Aerospace manufacturers are producing more aircraft to meet the demand. The aerospace industry is having a strong year with a positive trend.

Aerospace industry had huge losses because of the recession in 2008. After the recession, the net after tax profit has shown an increasing margin in comparison to the previous years.

annual traffic growth, source:IATA

annual traffic growth, source:IATA

When you check out the annual traffic growth provided by IATA reports;

  1. An increase starting with 2001
  2. Huge losses during recession in 2008-2009
  3. Increase again after 2011

This calculations depend on after tax ratios. In order to understand it better, one should see how to calculate after tax ratios:

post tax ratios aviation

post tax ratios aviation

Increase in the after tax means increase in sales. This tells us about the growth in passenger numbers. As they are all related; more passengers means that you need more airplane, means that you have to produce more aircrafts, recruit more engineers.. That is the reason why in this article, we are going to evaluate in all kind of views on aviation industry growth.

Here there is a good graph taken from innovation matters magazine:

aviation passenger numbers, source: innovation matters

aviation passenger numbers, source: innovation matters

As you can see in the graph,  the passenger number doubles from 2014 to 2033. This is a graph provided by Altran’s magazine. It is possible to guess that aviation industry will keep growing after checking the IATA source to see the growth rate until now and the passenger rates on 2033.  The aerospace industry has been growing around 4-5% every year during 30 years. This trend shows that it will continue at least for next twenty years.

According to Boeing, the number of commercial aircraft in service will double during next twenty years. The number of commercial aircraft is 21000 in the world and it will be 42300 by 2033. Considering that 15000 of in service aircraft will be retired from service, 36800 aircraft will be produced until 2033. It is even exciting to hear that, isn’t it? This means a really huge growth in aviation industry. It means 5200 billion dollars for aerospace companies.

The question is: Where exactly we will see this air traffic increase?

growth rate of passengers by region, source:statista

growth rate of passengers by region, source:statista

According to the statistics provided by statista, Middle East will be the lead in air traffic increase with 6.3% until 2034. The growth is expected to be 4.9% worldwide.

Why middle east is the lead? Open blue columns present revenue ton kilometers while the dark blue presents revenue per passenger. Middle east has 6.3 and 6.2 % respectively, making it the lead in air traffic growth by 2034.

airbus global market review 2015

airbus global market review 2015

It is a good point to compare Statista’s air traffic growth graph with Airbus Global Market Review.  We have already seen that middle east is supposed to be the leader in traffic growth by 2034 but the aircraft delivery graph does not support this hypothesis.  Airbus is planning to have 36200 new aircraft deliveries between 2015-2034 but just 7% of this deliveries belong to middle east. This may be up to airliners in middle east or the non middle eastern companies are flying over middle east.. but Airbus is going to have its most deliveries to Asia during that period.

We will see a big growth in aviation industry with the increasing air traffic next years. Of course this will create pollution but companies and authorities have cautions for that. Follow us to know about that topic in our next articles.

And.. here you have the highlights of Airbus until 2032:

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I am an aerospace engineer with experience specialized on aircraft structures. Here to serve for aviation industry.
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